Industrial Gas Production Capacity Planning Strategy using System Dynamics to Support the IKN Project
Keywords:
Industrial Gas Demand, Production Capacity, Scenario, Simulation, System DynamicsAbstract
The increasing demand for industrial gas in East Kalimantan, driven by the construction of the new capital city (IKN) and rapid industrial growth, poses challenges for producers in meeting consumer needs effectively. PT XYZ, a key industrial gas provider, has struggled to balance its production capacity with market demand, leading to recurring backlog orders. This study aims to analyze the oxygen production capacity of PT XYZ using the System Dynamics method. A dynamic model was developed to capture the relationships between production variables, demand drivers, and external influences. The simulation of the current system revealed a consistent shortfall in meeting oxygen demand, with a projected backlog reaching 1,197,198 m³ by 2029. To address this, three policy scenarios were proposed: increasing the number of production machines, outsourcing production, and a combination of both. The simulation results indicated that the third scenario, which combines equipment expansion and outsourcing, provides the most sustainable solution. It eliminates backlog by the end of 2029 and generates a profit of IDR 20,289,156,114. These findings highlight the importance of strategic capacity planning and the effectiveness of integrated approaches in aligning production with future industrial gas demand, particularly in support of national infrastructure development.
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